Now we are down to the states that are really close. My projection for the other states has Clinton leading 262 to 190 with 270 needed for the win. Let’s get started:
Florida – The polls are useless since the margin of victory is almost always within the margin of error. It will take a very large organization to get out the vote. For that reason I favor Clinton. Let’s just hope there isn’t another debacle like in 2000.
Iowa – This is usually close but I think Trump will win.
Maine and Nebraska – It looks like Trump will be able to pick up the remaining vote in each state.
Nevada – Recent polls have favored Trump by a slight margin. Assuming he doesn’t blow it by saying something stupid, I think he will come out on top.
North Carolina – Most of the polls slightly favor Clinton but I think the Democrats are an election or two from taking the state.
Ohio – This is always a battleground state. The polls are consistently favoring Trump and I think he will pull it off.
Wisconsin – Even though they have elected a Republican governor and senator, this is still a Democratic state. I expect Clinton to win.
So there you have it. If my projections come through, Clinton will win 301 to 237. That’s a lot closer that it seems. If Trump picks up Florida, he is only four votes short. A lot can happen in the next thirty-nine days.
I had planned to write about the Trump economic plan but his website isn’t much more detailed than his speeches. Next I thought I would discuss the first debate but could only stand to watch it for thirty minutes. Finally, I decided to update my analysis of the presidential election.
Last time I had Hillary Clinton winning with 332 electoral votes with Trump picking up 206. The race has definitely tightened up since then. The states have been divided into four categories; easy win, should win, likely win and really tight. In the first category I give Trump 20 states and Clinton 13 plus the District of Columbia. However, the blue states are more populous so she has a 182 to 153 electoral vote lead. Among the should win states I have Clinton taking Michigan, Minnesota and New Mexico with Trump getting Missouri. That widens the lead to 214 to 163. Next is a state by state review of the likely win states.
Arizona – Romney won by nine points. The polls have it closer but I think Trump will hang on.
Colorado – Clinton has blown a substantial lead. However, the state has been moving Democratic for some time and I expect her to win.
Georgia – The state is becoming less Republican but I think we are a few elections away from a Democratic victory.
Maine – Maine and Nebraska allocate two electoral votes based on statewide voting and the others by congressional district. Three of its four votes ought to go to Clinton.
New Hampshire – The race has tightened but I expect Clinton to pull out a victory.
Pennsylvania – This was once thought to be a swing state but Democrats have been winning it for some time. I expect Clinton to continue the tradition.
Virginia – The northern suburbs are starting to overpower the rest of the state. Clinton should win comfortably.
At this point Clinton leads Trump 262 to 190. That means that Trump can only give up six out of the remaining eighty-six votes. That’s a tall order but not impossible.
I’ll take a look at the tight races next time.
One of the disadvantages of being a moderate is that very few candidates will ever represent my views. I guess we may be a dying breed as the two parties grow farther and farther apart. Both sides are constantly shouting that they are right and the other guys are wrong. From my vantage point in the middle, both sides are usually wrong.
One of the greatest challenges we face today is the state of the economy. It has been barely growing for years. Far too many are unable to find work. Millions more are stuck in low paying jobs that don’t give them an adequate standard of living. I will take a look at each candidate’s economic plan and offer my thoughts.
Let’s start with Hillary Clinton. If you go to her website you will find eighteen separate issues in her economic plan. A number of them are social issues which, if anything, will hurt the economy. Her climate change plan, if enacted, will definitely cost jobs.
First on the list is tax reform. She wants to increase taxes on businesses and the rich. She has picked up the Obama term “fair share”. I know that “soak the rich” is a good way to get votes. The problem is that when rates exceed 50%, people have a greater incentive to find ways to cut taxes than to invest in a way that creates jobs and strengthens the economy.
There are a number of proposals that will increase the cost of doing business. They range from increased regulation to higher minimum wage and paid family leave. Many believe these are desirable ideas but it is important to recognize that they will hurt businesses and lead to fewer jobs. Programs that are supposed to help businesses like increasing manufacturing and additional training would be run by the government.
Her primary solution to job growth is to funnel money to Washington and let them create the jobs. She would do this by investing in infrastructure, clean energy, etc. We saw untold amounts of money wasted in the 2009 stimulus and in questionable energy investments. She wants more of the same.
One area in which we are in agreement is small businesses. That is where much of the job growth comes from. She has a number of good ideas.
Despite its faults, the free enterprise system has created the wealthiest, most powerful nation in the history of the world. Rather than creating growth and jobs, she sees the primary role of the private sector is to pay taxes and help fulfill the liberal agenda.
Next time I will be skewering Trump and the Republicans.
In the past we saw the IRS trampling on people’s rights for electoral advantage. We were told that it was just a few overzealous people in Cincinnati. We still don’t have the full story but we know that it wasn’t a rogue operation.
Now another branch of government is involved. This is even more serious because it potentially affects our safety. A memo from a field office of the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service was recently discovered. It asked employees to grant citizenship to as many “citizen voters” as possible “due to the election year”.
I don’t think this will become a major story. Right now much of the media sees its primary responsibility is to stop Donald Trump and put Hillary Clinton in the White House. Even the New York Times has withheld information that could hurt the Clinton campaign.
No matter what people’s views are on immigration issues, it is important to recognize that some very dangerous people want to get into the country. We must be especially careful in granting citizenship. It is absolutely outrageous that people we pay to enforce the law are willing to put votes over safety.
In this country we have a self-appointed liberal elite clique that has charged itself with defining what is and is not politically correct. They have determined what groups are being victimized. One of the ways they stay in power is to tell these groups that people are out to get them and they need the clique’s protection. The implication is that members are these groups are too weak and powerless to defend themselves. I would find that very demeaning if I were in one of those groups.
Sometimes the actions they take are bizarre or humorous. One college was recently in the news for offering scholarships to illegal immigrants (foreign born students who came here legally are not eligible). In the interest of equality, another school installed tampon dispensers in the men’s restrooms. My cousin (a college professor) told me her school cancelled The Vagina Monologues so they wouldn’t offend transsexuals that didn’t have one yet.
The dark side of political correctness is permissible hate. They are as vociferous in condemning groups they don’t like as they are in protecting those they do like. They include the police, businesses (especially Wall Street and oil companies) and Christians that don’t march in lockstep with them. They especially hate conservatives. Nothing is out of bounds. Comparing Trump to Hitler is fine. Some delegates at the Democratic National Convention objected to a moment of silence for slain police officers. Jimmy Hoffa, in introducing President Obama, said of the Tea Party, “Let’s take those sons of bitches out”.
Donald Trump deserves all the condemnation he got for his outrageous comments about illegal immigrants and a Hispanic judge. I was even more upset when Hillary Clinton showed her visceral hatred of a quarter of the electorate. Trump’s comments were off the cuff while her remarks about the “basket of deplorables” was carefully scripted.
Lincoln talked of a government “of the people, by the people and for the people”. I fear a Clinton administration will be a government of the liberal elite, by the liberal elite and for the liberal elite.
Last time I projected the Senate election in all but the six tightest races. So far I have the Republicans losing two seats. They can only lose one more and keep control (two if Trump wins). I have my crystal ball and Ouija board all cranked up.
Nevada – Harry Reid is retiring. Former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto is trying to keep the seat for the Democrats. Opposing her is Congressman Joe Heck. This may be the tightest race of all. The experts consider it a tossup and the polls bounce back and forth. Nevada is a bluish state. That and Hispanics turning out to vote against Trump ought to allow Masto to squeak through.
New Hampshire – This is a clash of the titans. Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte is seeking a second term. Standing in her way is two-term Governor Maggie Hassan. Ayotte is generally considered a moderate but has attracted endorsements from both wings of the party. Polls are inconclusive and many experts consider it a tossup. People usually don’t toss out a well-liked incumbent so I think Ayotte will hang on to her seat.
North Carolina – Richard Burd is running for a third term opposed by former state legislator Deborah Ross. Without having run a statewide campaign before, I expect Ross to make a good showing but fall short.
Ohio – Rob Portman is running for a second term. Former Governor Ted Strickland is trying to get the seat for the Democrats. Strickland is seventy-five years old and has been out of office for six years. Portman should be reelected.
Pennsylvania – Pat Toomey is another Republican who was elected in 2010 and is trying for a second term. His challenger is Kathleen “Katie” McGinty. She has served in a number of staff positions in both state and federal government. Recent polls have been inconsistent. Despite her lack of campaign experience, McGinty seems to be catching fire. Pennsylvania is a blue state and I think she will win in a squeaker.
Wisconsin – This is a rematch of 2010 when Ron Johnson ousted Russ Feingold. Feingold has consistently led in the polls and should give the Democrats another seat.
So there you have it. My expectation is that the GOP will lose four seats resulting in a 50-50 tie. Since the Vice President breaks the tie, whoever takes the White House controls the Senate. If Republicans don’t want to depend on a Trump victory, they need to pick up two seats between Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
Almost all of the attention is focused on the presidential race but control of the Senate is also up for grabs. Ten Democratic and twenty-four Republican seats are being contested. The GOP currently has fifty-four seats.
After closely examining each race, I’m ready to project the winner. Eight Democrats and twelve Republicans should cruise to an easy victory. Another Democratic and a pair of Republican seats are pretty safe. That leaves a single Democratic and ten Republican seats that are in play. Below is the first part of my state by state analysis.
Arizona – John McCain survived a primary challenge and will face Ann Kirkpatrick. She has represented a congressional district that serves much of Arizona outside of Phoenix and Tucson. Not serving in the urban part of the state might be a problem. Some may object to McCain’s age (he just turned eighty) but he should win a sixth term.
Florida – Democrats thought they could pick this seat up since Marco Rubio wasn’t running. Now he is back in the race and just had an overwhelming primary win. The polls are close and some experts consider it a tossup. However, I believe Rubio will win.
Illinois – Mark Kirk is considered to be the most vulnerable Republican. He is running against Rep. Tammy Duckworth. She is a strong candidate who should send Kirk packing.
Indiana – Incumbent Dan Coats announced his retirement for the second time. After the primary Rep. Todd Young was set to run against Baron Hill, the man he beat to obtain his seat. Then Hill bowed out in favor of former Senator Evan Bayh. Bayh and his father Birch have been winning races in Indiana for dec
It is rare for the country to be radically changed in a single day. September 11, 2001 was such a day. Al Qaeda’s evil plan left 3,000 dead and 6,000 injured. Today we mark the fifteenth anniversary of the day the towers came down. We should remember the dead, honor those who lost their lives while protecting us and resolve to do our part in the war on terrorism.
Unfortunately, the government is not doing enough to keep us safe. I have already discussed the Obama administration’s abysmal effort to fight ISIS. I believe their heart is in the right place but their decisions often lack common sense. At airports they assume a three year old boy, a ninety year woman and a nervous twenty-something from the Middle East are equally likely to be terrorists. I once read that they spend $10 on security per airline passenger while spending a penny per passenger on other forms of public transportation, the most likely source of future attacks. Local and state governments can also be foolish. Someone compiled a list of possible targets in my section of the state and included a popcorn stand.
An even greater problem is rampant political correctness. People had spotted several bombers acting suspiciously but didn’t notify authorities for fear of being perceived as prejudice. Donald Trump’s approach is equally damaging. I would guess that less than a hundred people are actively planning a terrorist attack. There are over 3 million Muslims in the country. We need to find the needles rather than going after the haystack.
What can we do? Most important, we can keep our eyes and ears open and report suspicious activity. Being of a certain ethnicity or religion does not constitute suspicious behavior. Finally, we must not give into fear. We should take reasonable precautions and then go about our lives.
I hope we are safer on the twentieth anniversary of 911. Changes must be made for that to happen.
We are just a few days away from the fifteenth anniversary of the 911 attack. It was an unprecedented enemy assault, killing more than Pearl Harbor.
It is less likely that someone could pull off something like that today. However, we are at greater risk than ever before. Al Qaeda was a terrorist group but ISIS is a terrorist country that is far more brutal and ruthless. In addition to the nation it has carved out of Iraq and Syria, it has cells around the world and has been very effective radicalizing thousands of people. These lone wolf attacks are the hardest to stop.
By pulling troops out of Iraq and dithering in Syria, President Obama allowed ISIS to gain strength and territory. We are now bombing them but the rules of combat are so strict that the effectiveness is limited. Nobody wants to see civilians killed, but stopping them will save far more lives.
The real problem is that the Obama Administration sees this as a PR problem. He refuses to mention the religious underpinning of their radicalization. He dismissed ISIS as the “B team”. Now the Secretary of State is telling journalists to quit reporting on terrorism.
He seems to take a Lyndon Johnson “it’s all about me” approach to governing. Now he is bound and determined to close Gitmo. Many of those released have returned to the battlefield and undoubtedly more will do so. The only good reason I can think of to shut it down is so he can fulfill a campaign promise.
Let’s hope the next president does better. Given the abysmal candidates running, I’m not very optimistic.