I had planned to write about the Trump economic plan but his website isn’t much more detailed than his speeches. Next I thought I would discuss the first debate but could only stand to watch it for thirty minutes. Finally, I decided to update my analysis of the presidential election.
Last time I had Hillary Clinton winning with 332 electoral votes with Trump picking up 206. The race has definitely tightened up since then. The states have been divided into four categories; easy win, should win, likely win and really tight. In the first category I give Trump 20 states and Clinton 13 plus the District of Columbia. However, the blue states are more populous so she has a 182 to 153 electoral vote lead. Among the should win states I have Clinton taking Michigan, Minnesota and New Mexico with Trump getting Missouri. That widens the lead to 214 to 163. Next is a state by state review of the likely win states.
Arizona – Romney won by nine points. The polls have it closer but I think Trump will hang on.
Colorado – Clinton has blown a substantial lead. However, the state has been moving Democratic for some time and I expect her to win.
Georgia – The state is becoming less Republican but I think we are a few elections away from a Democratic victory.
Maine – Maine and Nebraska allocate two electoral votes based on statewide voting and the others by congressional district. Three of its four votes ought to go to Clinton.
New Hampshire – The race has tightened but I expect Clinton to pull out a victory.
Pennsylvania – This was once thought to be a swing state but Democrats have been winning it for some time. I expect Clinton to continue the tradition.
Virginia – The northern suburbs are starting to overpower the rest of the state. Clinton should win comfortably.
At this point Clinton leads Trump 262 to 190. That means that Trump can only give up six out of the remaining eighty-six votes. That’s a tall order but not impossible.
I’ll take a look at the tight races next time.
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