Who Will Control the Senate? - Part One

The midterm elections are less than four months away. Republicans currently have a 51-49 majority so Democrats need to pick up two seats. Today I will look at where they might find them.

They have an enormous task in front of them. Only nine of the thirty-three seats are currently held by Republicans. They need to defend ten seats in states Donald Trump won while the GOP has just one seat in a state Hillary Clinton won.

That state is Nevada. Dean Heller is seeking a second term.  He is a solid conservative who was sharply criticized Donald Trump in 2016. President Trump said he would support a challenger unless Heller was more supportive. They made up and Trump endorsed him. Challenging him is Jacky Rosen. Her first foray into politics was a successful run for the House in 2016.

Republican Jeff Flake announced his retirement. Arizona hasn’t held their primary yet. The likely GOP winner is Martha McSally. She has served two terms in the House and has the distinction of being the first woman to command an Air Force fighter squadron. Running against her are former sheriff Joe Arpaio and Kelly Ward, right-wing nut job. She urged John McCain to resign due to his illness and offered herself up as a replacement. Kyrsten Sinema, a three term member of the House.

Bob Corker of Tennessee announced his retirement. Tennessee has also not held their primary election but neither frontrunner has a serious challenge. Marsha Blackburn, a long time House member, will try to keep the seat. Her challenger is former Governor Phil Bredesen.

The Nevada race is considered to be a tossup. Heller barely won last time. Nevada is growing in population, primary in Las Vegas and surrounding Clark County. That favors Democrats so I will give them a slight edge.
Martha McSally is a dream candidate. However, she is being pounded by her primary opponents and it is unlikely they will unite behind her. I think we can probably add Arizona to the list of states in which the Far Right handed over to the Democrats.
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Tennessee is redder than the other two states. Bredesen is 74 and hasn’t been in an election since 2006. Blackburn should keep the seat for the Republicans.
If my predictions comes true, the Democrats will get their two seats. However, they have a Herculean task to hang on to their current seats.
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