Now that the election is over, I thought I’d offer my analysis of the election and where I went right and wrong with my predictions. A poker analogy best explains what happened. Democrats were dealt a bad hand in the Senate and Republicans in the House. Each side played their hand poorly.
Winning the Senate was always a long shot for the Democrats. They had few opportunities to pick up seats and were vulnerable in a number of states. They made several mistakes. Their main message to those in states President Trump won was to vote against Republicans out of anger and hate. Then they pressured vulnerable Democrats to vote against Cavanaugh. Finally, they diverted funds from states they might have won in a futile effort to elect a leftist in Texas.
Many Republicans that were in trouble came from the suburbs. Their best chance was to keep the focus local. Democrats main strategy was to make it a referendum on Trump. Even though it would cost him the House, he put his ego ahead of election success. He still had a powerful message with the economy and tax cuts. Instead, he put immigration front and center. One ad was so hateful that even Fox News quit running it. The first rule of good salesmanship is to know your customer. He totally ignored the customer and aimed his message at those that come to his rally. Most of them don’t live in vulnerable districts.
I did a good job predicting the Senate and a poor job with the House. The basic reason is I factored in the way Democrats played their hand but missed the impact of Trump’s lousy play.
There is a lot to say about what may be next but that will have to wait for another day.