Boy was I wrong! However, I have a lot of company. We were wrong for one simple reason. The only path he had for victory was to take some Democratic states and we thought he couldn’t do it.
A far more interesting question is why Trump’s victory was so unexpected. I’ve heard people say it was because she was a lousy candidate or a drop in black turnout. We knew that going in so it’s no explanation. We need to look at factors we didn’t fully appreciate. I believe there are two.
Most important is the switching of blue collar voters to Trump. It used to be that the workers were Democrats and the owners were Republican. Millions of them are hurting financially. The high-paying union jobs their parents had are gone. Now they have to settle for low-paying jobs, often working multiple jobs. Many have experienced repeated layoffs.
Despite their hardships, they likely would have stayed with the Democrats if they had been treated better. They saw attacks on their religion, environmental regulations costing them jobs (remember Clinton bragging about putting coal miners out of work?), attacks on the police, etc. Many on the Left are contemptuous of them. Obama talked about them clinging to guns and religion. The topper was when Clinton said they were deplorable and irredeemable.
Certainly some are rabid Trump supporters. I believe many disapprove of his actions and temperament. However, they know what they’ve had the last eight years and are willing to take a chance on something different.
The young Bernie Sanders supporters also made a difference. They turned off many with their antics like trying to shut down Trump rallies. They abhor Clinton. Many didn’t vote and 22% voted for Trump. If you are a Democratic and idealistic young liberals turn against you, then you are in trouble.
So there it is. I would like to write some blogs about what to expect from a Trump administration but I don’t have the foggiest idea what’s going to happen.