With just one day to go before the election, it’s time for my final prediction on the presidential race. I am using the same categories as I did with the Senate.
Trump has more Easy states than Clinton but hers are more populous. I have her ahead in electoral votes 175 to 105. In my last projection, made before the release of the infamous Trump tapes, it was 182 to 153.
In the Should Win category I give Trump Indiana and Texas while Clinton picks up Maine, Michigan, Minnesota New Mexico and Oregon. That gives her a 216 to 154 lead. Trump is talking about winning in Michigan and Minnesota but that makes no sense whatsoever.
In the Likely category Trump gets Georgia while Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin go to Clinton. Her lead is 268 to 170. That means Trump would need to win all nine Tight states plus the Maine and Nebraska congressional districts. Don’t expect that to happen. However, if one or two states are very close and could decide the election, we would likely have a repeat of the debacle in 2000. My hope is that the voters, not the courts, determine who will be our next president. Here we go:
Alaska – I am absolutely stunned that the race is close. I think Alaska Democrats might qualify for protection under the Endangered Species Act. The polls are close and the most recent one has Clinton ahead by four points. However, I do expect Trump to hang on and win.
Arizona – Most polls show Trump leading but a few go the other way. Arizona is not Clinton Country and I see Trump getting the win.
Florida – With twenty-nine electoral votes, Florida is the big prize. Most polls show Clinton ahead but within the margin of error. A good ground game is vital in a state this large and diverse. That’s why I expect Clinton to win.
Iowa – We think of it as a Midwest agricultural state but it’s an amalgam of Democratic Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois along with Republican Missouri and Nebraska. Most polls favor Trump by a slight margin. The most recent one, done by the state’s leading newspaper, has him up by seven points. I expect him to win.
Maine Second Congressional District – Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral votes by district. The district covers all of the state except the populous southern coast. My hunch is that Clinton will pick it up.
Nebraska Second Congressional District – This includes Omaha. I think it will go for Trump but by a smaller margin than the rest of the state.
Nevada – The polls are all over the place. I expect a heavy Hispanic turnout will give the state to Clinton.
New Hampshire – Most of the polls favor Clinton. She is the likely winner.
North Carolina – The state is moving from red to purple. I thought Trump might hang on to it but it looks like a pickup for Clinton.
Ohio – As Democrats move to the left, they are losing some of their blue collar support. I give Trump a slight edge.
Utah – Like Alaska, I can’t believe this race is close. Perhaps it’s because of moral objections to Trump. He should still win.
That adds up to a 323 to 215 win for Clinton. I don’t really see a path where Trump can win. If the Republicans had picked a better candidate, they would be celebrating tomorrow night.