There were a few surprises last night. I didn't expect Rubio to come so close to Trump or for Sanders to do as well as he did. A big turnout was supposed to help Trump but it didn't.
So what's next? We need to look at the caucus/primary calendar. New Hampshire is up next week. The only other contests are in Nevada and South Carolina. On March 1 "Super Tuesday" twelve states are up for grabs. Candidates won't be able to blanket those states like they did in Iowa.
Although she squeaked by, this poor showing is a blow for Hillary Clinton. I would expect Sanders to win New Hampshire. The superiority of her organization should allow her to do well on Super Tuesday but, if she loses both Nevada and South Carolina, it could be a real horse race.
The immediate result of the Rubio surge is to doom the candidacies of Bush, Christie and Kasich. The establishment will go all out for Rubio. Trump certainly isn't out of the race but is badly damaged. It reminds me of
the story "The Emperor's New Clothes".
People are starting to see him as he really is. Cruz put an extraordinary amount of effort into Iowa but can't replicate it elsewhere. Rubio stands the
best chance of getting the nomination but the race is far from over.
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