Last time I speculated that if the GOP nominated someone other than Marco Rubio (or another main stream candidate), Hillary Clinton would win the election. A Clinton-Rubio match would be very interesting. Usually it’s the Democrats that have the younger, more exciting candidate.
So can Rubio win? Let’s look at the numbers. It takes 270 electoral votes to win. In 2012 Romney picked up 206 so the Republicans need to find 64 votes. The first place to look is Florida with 29 votes. Obama won it by less than 1%. If he is running, Rubio will certainly win the state.
That leaves 35 votes. Romney lost Virginia and its 13 votes by 4%. I think Rubio stands a good chance there. Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire showed losses of 5-6%. Winning all three (a questionable proposition) adds 19 votes, still three votes short.
Enter Ohio and Pennsylvania with 18 and 20 votes respectively. Romney lost the states by 3 and 5%. On election night we need to watch these two states closely. Republicans MUST win one of these states. If not, White House closets will be full of pants suits.
I hope this doesn’t come off as professorial. I really enjoy playing the election numbers game. Next time I will likely be ranting and raving about something that upsets me.