The election is just over ten months away. Obviously there will be a lot of twists and turns between now and then. Even so, I decided to look ahead at the most likely scenarios.
As we all remember from high school, we don’t actually vote for the president. Instead we vote for an anonymous slate of electors pledged to vote for their party’s candidate. That means it is possible for a candidate to win the popular vote and lose the election. It last happened to Al Gore in 2000.
Right now most states consistently vote for one party leaving a few “swing” states to decide things. The Democrats have a considerable advantage in these consistent states. They also have a huge disadvantage in having a bad candidate. Hillary Clinton is a terrible campaigner, has loads of baggage and is an old timer in an era when voters are demanding fresh faces.
The Republicans also have disadvantages besides the lopsided initial electoral count. A thundering herd is running and many candidates are attacking each other. Even worse, some of the leading candidates have strong appeal to the base but will turn off other voters. Right now the biggest variable in the election is who the GOP nominates. Trump would be a disaster. Cruz can’t even get along with his own party. I believe that if either gets the nod, we will have our first female president and a very interesting “First Gentleman”. Of the remaining candidates, Marco Rubio has by the far the best chance. If he (or another mainstream candidate) is nominated, it should be a very interesting race. More on that next time.