July 31st, 2018

I took a look at the Senate awhile back. Now I will examine the House races.

There are fifty-three seats that the experts consider to be close. Republicans hold forty-five and Democrats hold seven (one is a new district). To take the House, the odds have to be in favor of the Democrats. In most cases incumbents will be running for reelection. That certainly puts the odds on the Republican side.

Next, we need to look at issues that could swing the election. Many Democrats talk about a “blue wave” because of President Trump’s unpopularity. Most people made up their mind about him in 2016 so that shouldn’t be a factor. Economic issues definitely favor the GOP. Immigration will hurt them in some places and help them in others. I see Democrats’ anger and leftward movement hurting them.
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So, there you have it. Republicans have the odds and the issues. I would expect them to hang on to the House if the election were held today. We still have over three months to go and a lot can happen.
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