We heard a lot of talk about the blue wave earlier this year. Much of it was based on polls asking people which party they prefer. Democrats had a big lead and then it got closer. Now it is moving back in their direction.
Today I would like to take a look at factors that favor the Democrats and those that are against them. Later this month I will update my predictions for both the House and the Senate.
There are several reasons for Democrats to be hopeful:
1. Midterm elections almost always favor the party out of power.
2. They have been able to generate more enthusiasm than the Republicans.
3. Most of the seats in the House that are up for grabs are currently being held by Republicans. Of course, they hold most of the vulnerable seats in the Senate.
Here are some reasons for them to be concerned:
1. A stronger economy and the tax cuts favor the GOP.
2. Too many Democrats are pushing the theme that Republicans are evil. It didn’t work in 2016 and it won’t work now.
3. The party is moving dramatically to the left. Right now, Democrat Socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is getting more publicity than anyone else. Getting rid of capitalism is definitely not a mainstream issue.
4. They are losing touch with the ordinary person. Bill Clinton talked about feeling their pain. Hillary Clinton says they vote Republican because they are racist and women are afraid to stand up to the men in their lives.
5. People pay less attention to ideology when voting for members of Congress. They often vote for the person, not the party.
The election is still over two months away. A lot can happen between now and then.