We are hearing talk of a “Blue Wave”, a huge Democratic win in the fall election. In its most extreme form, there is talk of winning the Senate and Texas turning Democratic. Promoters of this theory cite the election of two Democratic governors, Doug Jones winning in Alabama, President Trump’s unpopularity, a poll showing people prefer Democrats and the low ratings given to Congress.
The governors won in New Jersey and Virginia, two Democratic states. There is no way Jones would have won without the accusations of sexual misconduct against Moore. President Trump is about as unpopular as he was on Election Day. Polls ten months out are meaningless. People have hated Congress and liked their representatives for decades.
Even if there was more solid evidence of a blue wave, Democrats must overcome a number of hurdles. They include:
1. Disunity – There is a deep division between the Establishment and Far Left. The GOP has the same issue but it’s less intense.
2. Numbers – It is virtually impossible for them to win the Senate. They have to defend ten seats Trump won while Republicans have only one seat Clinton won.
3. Message – They need to state what they are FOR. Virtually their only message is to vote for them because Trump and the Republicans are evil.
4. Become a national party again – Much of their success comes from the Pacific states and Atlantic states from Virginia on north. The other thirty-five present a much different picture. Hillary Clinton won in only six, Democrats hold both Senate seats in only five, they have a majority of the congressional delegation in four and control the governor’s mansion in only three.
Can we actually have a blue wave? In politics almost anything is possible. However, they have made little progress in the sixteen months since the election. Their best hope is that Republicans will be even more fouled up.