The primaries are over so we know who will be running in November. The Republicans currently have a 51-49 advantage so the Democrats need to pick up two seats to gain control. They are eying five possible seats. I will discuss them in order of likelihood of going Democratic.
Nevada – Incumbent Dean Heller is the only Republican running in a state won by Hillary Clinton. His opponent is a Jacky Rosen, a one term Congresswoman. She has led in most of the polls but by a small margin. Fox News has the race leaning Democrat. All others call it a toss-up. Demographics favor her as Las Vegas continues to grow. I predict that Rosen will win.
Arizona – Republican Jeff Flake retired. Martha McSally, a two-term congresswoman, is trying to keep the seat for the GOP. She was the first woman to fly in combat and lead a fighter squadron. Kyrsten Sinema is a centrist Democrat with three terms in Congress. Sinema had been consistently leading in the polls but McSally has won two recent polls. Last time I picked Sinema. I believe the race is moving in McSally’s favor and she will end up with the victory.
Tennessee – Republican Bob Corker is retiring. The GOP is pinning their hopes on eight-term Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn. Her opponent, Phil Bredesen, is a former governor and mayor of Nashville. He is widely respected but hasn’t run for office in eleven years and, if victorious, would be 75 when sworn in. The experts are split between calling it a toss-up and leaning Republican. It should be close but I’ll give Blackburn the edge.
Texas – Ted Cruz is running for a second term. His opponent is two-term Congressman Robert “Beto” O’Rourke. The polls have been very close but Cruz has led every single one. I think he will be reelected.
Mississippi – There is both a regular and a special election this year. Some Democrats consider this seat in the special election winnable. The only chance I see is if the GOP candidate is another Roy Moore.
If I am right, the Democrats will only pick up one seat. That would mean there would be no chance of them controlling the Senate. Since I am sometimes wrong (I predicted an easy Clinton win in 2016), I will look at the seats in which the Democrats are vulnerable next time.