I’m finally ready to finish my review of the Senate midterm elections. Right now, we are all wrapped up in the Kavanaugh confirmation. I don’t see it making much difference in the election. The story will soon be over and those who have strong feelings about it have already made up their mind.
Republicans currently have a 51-49 majority. Previously I predicted that they would only lose Nevada. At the time I predicted that Martha McSally of Arizona would win. It looked like she was moving ahead in the polls. Since then, her opponent, Krysten Sinema has had a small but consistent lead. Once again, I’m changing my mind and giving the seat to the Democrats. That would give them the two seats they would need to take over the Senate. However, they can’t afford to lose a single seat.
Here’s how I see the races in which the Democrats are vulnerable shaping up:
Florida – Incumbent Bill Nelson is being challenged by Governor Rick Scott. All the prognosticators have it as a tossup and the polls bounce back and forth. This one is too close to call.
Indiana – Businessman Mike Braun is trying to unseat incumbent Joe Donnelly. Everyone is calling it a tossup. Donnelly has maintained a small lead in the polls but it’s also too close to call.
Missouri – Claire McCaskill is being challenged by Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley. Everyone is calling it a tossup and the polls are all over the place. There is no way I can make a call.
Montana – Republicans had hoped to pick up the seat but the trends are favoring the Democrats.
North Dakota – Incumbent Heidi Heitkamp may be in trouble. In recent days five of the seven predictors have moved from tossup to favoring Republican challenger Kevin Cramer. I am comfortable calling this a win for the GOP.
West Virginia – Incumbent Joe Manchin is very popular and should win reelection.
If my predictions come true, the Republicans would lose one seat with three too close to call. If there is a trend, I believe it is going the Republicans’ way. Democrats have no answer to the strong economy and tax cuts. A lot can happen in a month but I see them at least keeping their current 51-49 majority.
I will take another look at these races right before the election.