Today I complete this round of political analysis by taking a look at the House of Representatives. Democrats need 24 seats to gain control.
I started by looking at what the experts were predicting. There were 42 seats in which at least half of them predicted it to be a tossup or a flip to the other party. All but 2 seats are currently held by Republicans. I looked at the district, incumbent (if one) and the experts’ predictions. In some cases, I looked at polls. I have 18 seats flipping to the Democrats and 2 going to the Republicans. If correct, the GOP would keep control of the House. However, this is a very imprecise process. I am 60-65% confident that Republicans will hang on to the House.
My gut is telling me the same thing. Democrats have recruited many fine candidates. At the national level their message is almost entirely based on demonizing Republicans. People need a reason to vote for a candidate. Being told to vote out of anger is not enough. Those people are already voting for Democrats.
No matter how it turns out, the Trump legislative agenda is likely dead. The most conservative members are unwilling to compromise. Even if Republicans keep the House, it will be by a thin majority.
What is really at stake is whether or not we will have nonstop investigations and impeachments. The Kavanaugh confirmation paints a good picture of how Democrats would run the House.