With Election Day only six days away, it’s time for my final prognostication. The experts rate a number of races as tossups but I will make a call (guess) on each one. Right now the Republicans hold a 54-46 advantage. They can only afford to lose three seats to keep control (four if Trump wins).
As before, I have broken down the results into four categories: Easy, Should Win, Likely Win and Tight. The only thing necessary for a win in the first category is a beating pulse. Twenty one races (eight Democrats and thirteen Republicans) are included. The only change from last time is Iowa which I had as a Should Win.
Three seats are in the Should Win category. Senators in Colorado and Ohio will keep their seats while the open seat in Louisiana will stay with the GOP. Last time I had Ohio in the Tight category.
The Likelys give us the first change in party. John McCain and Marco Rubio should keep their seats while Tammy Duckworth moves Illinois to the Democrats. I had Indiana in this category last time but things have tightened up.
The final seven races will decide which party controls the Senate. Democrats hope to hang on in Nevada while Republicans are defending Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.