This is my last chance to offer my opinion on how the senate election will turn out. I have given this a lot of thought but that’s no guarantee I’m right. Like many others, I predicted Hillary Clinton would win in 2016.
Let’s start with the states in which Republicans may be vulnerable:
Arizona – This is an incredibly tight race with most of the experts still calling it a tossup. The polls are tight although a recent one gave Republic Martha McSally a 6-point lead. I think she will edge out Krysten Sinema. Her military record will resonate with the voters better than Sinema’s leftist past.
Nevada – Dean Heller is the only Republican running in a state Hillary Clinton won. Most polls favor his opponent, Jacky Rosen. They don’t include votes that the Libertarian Party might siphon away from Heller. I predict Rosen wins.
Tennessee – This once looked close but Republican Marsha Blackburn is leading by a comfortable margin.
Texas – Democrats poured millions into hoping that Beto O’Rourke would knock off Ted Cruz. They should have spent their money elsewhere. It may be close but Cruz will be on top.
The Democrats are vulnerable in a number of states.
Florida – I don’t know why this race hasn’t generated more attention. It’s very tight and has a two-term governor vs. a three-term senator. I favor Republican Rick Scott to unseat Bill Nelson for two reasons. He has significantly outspent Nelson and a governor has more opportunities to get close to the people than a senator. Let’s hope we don’t have to hear any more about hanging chad.
Indiana – The polls have been all over the place. Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly is taking on businessman Mike Braun. I will give to Donnelly. Braun has little political experience and nobody would describe him as charismatic.
Missouri – Incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill is taking on Attorney General Josh Hawley. She isn’t popular enough to keep her seat.
Montana – There had some excitement when it was reported that the Libertarian candidate dropped out and endorsed the Republican. He says it isn’t so. Incumbent Joe Tester should win by a comfortable margin.
North Dakota – All the experts say incumbent Heidi Heitkamp will be defeated. I see no reason to argue with them.
West Virginia – Republicans once had big hopes but Joe Manchin is just too popular.
In summary, I have Republicans losing Nevada and picking up Florida, Missouri and North Dakota. Right or wrong, I will be commenting on the results.