I have been having some computer problems today. Last time I predicted the Republicans would lose sixteen seats. I have updated my analysis from Alabama through Nebraska and have them losing seventeen. I am confident that if I finished it, I would have the Republicans keeping the House by a very narrow margin.
We will know soon whether I am right or wrong. There are a couple of areas where I think others are incorrect in their analysis. We hear a lot of talk of this being a referendum on President Trump. That has been the reason Democrats talk about a blue wave. Given Trump’s ego, of course he thinks it is all about him.
The late Tip O’Neill used to say that all politics is local. It is fairly common to have a senator or congressman of the opposite party from which they generally vote. For example, West Virginia loves Joe Manchin even though it is a heavily Republican state. It is a mistake to look at 2016 and believe that will predict winners in 2018.
People also look too closely at the polls. I think there are a number of issues that can make them inaccurate. I only used them if one candidate was ahead by a wide margin. Most of my analysis is done by looking at the district and the candidates.
I’ll be back to explain why I was right (or wrong).