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A Final Look at the House

11/5/2018

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I have been having some computer problems today. Last time I predicted the Republicans would lose sixteen seats. I have updated my analysis from Alabama through Nebraska and have them losing seventeen. I am confident that if I finished it, I would have the Republicans keeping the House by a very narrow margin.

We will know soon whether I am right or wrong. There are a couple of areas where I think others are incorrect in their analysis. We hear a lot of talk of this being a referendum on President Trump. That has been the reason Democrats talk about a blue wave. Given Trump’s ego, of course he thinks it is all about him.

The late Tip O’Neill used to say that all politics is local. It is fairly common to have a senator or congressman of the opposite party from which they generally vote. For example, West Virginia loves Joe Manchin even though it is a heavily Republican state. It is a mistake to look at 2016 and believe that will predict winners in 2018.

People also look too closely at the polls. I think there are a number of issues that can make them inaccurate. I only used them if one candidate was ahead by a wide margin. Most of my analysis is done by looking at the district and the candidates.
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I’ll be back to explain why I was right (or wrong).
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    Hi! My name is Dave. I'm in my 60s and live in Indiana. I'll write about whatever is on my mind but most posts will be political. I'm a centrist who thinks both sides are on the wrong path.

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At long last this idiotic shutdown is over. Hopefully cooler heads prevail and it doesn’t start up again.

The real story is that 800,000 government workers are back on the job and many millions of people are no longer inconvenienced.

Unfortunately, that is not the story we are hearing in the media. Their story is about how Speaker Pelosi beat President Trump. He got himself into this mess. She decided that all that mattered was winning. The harm done to the people involved was of no concern whatsoever. A good leader puts the good of the people over political gamesmanship,

it would be nice to think that both people have learned their lesson and will try to do what is best for the
country. I sure wouldn’t bet on it.
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