Handicapping the Election

We are still ten months away from choosing our next president. There will be lots of twists and turns between now and then.

As we all learned in high school, we don't actually vote for the president. Instead, we vote for an anonymous slate of electors who pledge to vote for their party's candidate. That means a candidate can win the popular vote and lose the election. It happened to Al Gore in 2000. Most states almost always vote for one party. That leaves a relatively few "swing" states to decide things.

The Democrats have a considerable lead in electoral votes from safe states. They also have some huge disadvantages. They are trying to gain a third consecutive term and have a relatively unpopular president. They are also saddled with a bad candidate. Hillary Clinton is a bad campaigner, has all kinds of baggage and is an old timer in a era that is demanding fresh faces. I believe that President Obama doesn't want her to win so he can be the guiding force in the party like Franklin Roosevelt.

Republicans have their own problems. A thundering herd is running for president. Candidates are attacking each other. Worst of all, some leading candidates appear to core constituencies but will turn off centrists and Democrats. Donald Trump is a disaster waiting to happen. Ted Cruz can't even get along with his party, If either of them get the nomination, I believe we will have our first female president and an interesting "First Man". Right now Marco Rubio is the most viable candidate other than Trump and Cruz. So what happens if he gets the nod? I'll save that for next time.