Now that the election is over, I thought I’d offer my analysis of the election and where I went right and wrong with my predictions. A poker analogy best explains what happened. Democrats were dealt a bad hand in the Senate and Republicans in the House. Each side played their hand poorly.
Winning the Senate was always a long shot for the Democrats. They had few opportunities to pick up seats and were vulnerable in a number of states. They made several mistakes. Their main message to those in states President Trump won was to vote against Republicans out of anger and hate. Then they pressured vulnerable Democrats to vote against Cavanaugh. Finally, they diverted funds from states they might have won in a futile effort to elect a leftist in Texas. Many Republicans that were in trouble came from the suburbs. Their best chance was to keep the focus local. Democrats main strategy was to make it a referendum on Trump. Even though it would cost him the House, he put his ego ahead of election success. He still had a powerful message with the economy and tax cuts. Instead, he put immigration front and center. One ad was so hateful that even Fox News quit running it. The first rule of good salesmanship is to know your customer. He totally ignored the customer and aimed his message at those that come to his rally. Most of them don’t live in vulnerable districts. I did a good job predicting the Senate and a poor job with the House. The basic reason is I factored in the way Democrats played their hand but missed the impact of Trump’s lousy play. There is a lot to say about what may be next but that will have to wait for another day.
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I have been having some computer problems today. Last time I predicted the Republicans would lose sixteen seats. I have updated my analysis from Alabama through Nebraska and have them losing seventeen. I am confident that if I finished it, I would have the Republicans keeping the House by a very narrow margin.
We will know soon whether I am right or wrong. There are a couple of areas where I think others are incorrect in their analysis. We hear a lot of talk of this being a referendum on President Trump. That has been the reason Democrats talk about a blue wave. Given Trump’s ego, of course he thinks it is all about him. The late Tip O’Neill used to say that all politics is local. It is fairly common to have a senator or congressman of the opposite party from which they generally vote. For example, West Virginia loves Joe Manchin even though it is a heavily Republican state. It is a mistake to look at 2016 and believe that will predict winners in 2018. People also look too closely at the polls. I think there are a number of issues that can make them inaccurate. I only used them if one candidate was ahead by a wide margin. Most of my analysis is done by looking at the district and the candidates. I’ll be back to explain why I was right (or wrong). Given the idiotic comments we are hearing from both parties, I have decided to create a regular feature. I can’t promise I’ll do it every week.
Comparing anyone to Hitler is a good way to make the list. Jane Fonda drew a parallel between Trump and Hitler criticizing the press. Apparently using the term “fake news” means that concentration camps are on the way. I don’t know how she thinks such comments will get Democrats to the polls. Perhaps all she cares about is a little free publicity. This is my last chance to offer my opinion on how the senate election will turn out. I have given this a lot of thought but that’s no guarantee I’m right. Like many others, I predicted Hillary Clinton would win in 2016.
Let’s start with the states in which Republicans may be vulnerable: Arizona – This is an incredibly tight race with most of the experts still calling it a tossup. The polls are tight although a recent one gave Republic Martha McSally a 6-point lead. I think she will edge out Krysten Sinema. Her military record will resonate with the voters better than Sinema’s leftist past. Nevada – Dean Heller is the only Republican running in a state Hillary Clinton won. Most polls favor his opponent, Jacky Rosen. They don’t include votes that the Libertarian Party might siphon away from Heller. I predict Rosen wins. Tennessee – This once looked close but Republican Marsha Blackburn is leading by a comfortable margin. Texas – Democrats poured millions into hoping that Beto O’Rourke would knock off Ted Cruz. They should have spent their money elsewhere. It may be close but Cruz will be on top. The Democrats are vulnerable in a number of states. Florida – I don’t know why this race hasn’t generated more attention. It’s very tight and has a two-term governor vs. a three-term senator. I favor Republican Rick Scott to unseat Bill Nelson for two reasons. He has significantly outspent Nelson and a governor has more opportunities to get close to the people than a senator. Let’s hope we don’t have to hear any more about hanging chad. Indiana – The polls have been all over the place. Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly is taking on businessman Mike Braun. I will give to Donnelly. Braun has little political experience and nobody would describe him as charismatic. Missouri – Incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill is taking on Attorney General Josh Hawley. She isn’t popular enough to keep her seat. Montana – There had some excitement when it was reported that the Libertarian candidate dropped out and endorsed the Republican. He says it isn’t so. Incumbent Joe Tester should win by a comfortable margin. North Dakota – All the experts say incumbent Heidi Heitkamp will be defeated. I see no reason to argue with them. West Virginia – Republicans once had big hopes but Joe Manchin is just too popular. In summary, I have Republicans losing Nevada and picking up Florida, Missouri and North Dakota. Right or wrong, I will be commenting on the results. President Trump recently announced that he plans an executive order to end birthright citizenship. I find this puzzling in several ways.
By announcing it days before the election, he obviously thinks it will help Republicans. This strikes me as being the same as Democrats trying to get votes by appealing to those angry over Judge Cavanaugh’s confirmation. In both cases, they are preaching to the choir. It is much more likely to cost them votes. Republicans are supposed to cherish the Constitution. The first line of the 14th Amendment reads “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside”. It sounds pretty clear to me. Many agree, including Paul Ryan. I also wonder how this would be implemented. Will federal agents interrogate all new mothers? Will there be detention centers for mothers and their babies. This is another time Trump has shot is mouth off without thinking. That may work well if you are hosting a reality show but not if you are president. |
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