With just one day to go before the election, it’s time for my final prediction on the presidential race. I am using the same categories as I did with the Senate.
Trump has more Easy states than Clinton but hers are more populous. I have her ahead in electoral votes 175 to 105. In my last projection, made before the release of the infamous Trump tapes, it was 182 to 153. In the Should Win category I give Trump Indiana and Texas while Clinton picks up Maine, Michigan, Minnesota New Mexico and Oregon. That gives her a 216 to 154 lead. Trump is talking about winning in Michigan and Minnesota but that makes no sense whatsoever. In the Likely category Trump gets Georgia while Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin go to Clinton. Her lead is 268 to 170. That means Trump would need to win all nine Tight states plus the Maine and Nebraska congressional districts. Don’t expect that to happen. However, if one or two states are very close and could decide the election, we would likely have a repeat of the debacle in 2000. My hope is that the voters, not the courts, determine who will be our next president. Here we go: Alaska – I am absolutely stunned that the race is close. I think Alaska Democrats might qualify for protection under the Endangered Species Act. The polls are close and the most recent one has Clinton ahead by four points. However, I do expect Trump to hang on and win. Arizona – Most polls show Trump leading but a few go the other way. Arizona is not Clinton Country and I see Trump getting the win. Florida – With twenty-nine electoral votes, Florida is the big prize. Most polls show Clinton ahead but within the margin of error. A good ground game is vital in a state this large and diverse. That’s why I expect Clinton to win. Iowa – We think of it as a Midwest agricultural state but it’s an amalgam of Democratic Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois along with Republican Missouri and Nebraska. Most polls favor Trump by a slight margin. The most recent one, done by the state’s leading newspaper, has him up by seven points. I expect him to win. Maine Second Congressional District – Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral votes by district. The district covers all of the state except the populous southern coast. My hunch is that Clinton will pick it up. Nebraska Second Congressional District – This includes Omaha. I think it will go for Trump but by a smaller margin than the rest of the state. Nevada – The polls are all over the place. I expect a heavy Hispanic turnout will give the state to Clinton. New Hampshire – Most of the polls favor Clinton. She is the likely winner. North Carolina – The state is moving from red to purple. I thought Trump might hang on to it but it looks like a pickup for Clinton. Ohio – As Democrats move to the left, they are losing some of their blue collar support. I give Trump a slight edge. Utah – Like Alaska, I can’t believe this race is close. Perhaps it’s because of moral objections to Trump. He should still win. That adds up to a 323 to 215 win for Clinton. I don’t really see a path where Trump can win. If the Republicans had picked a better candidate, they would be celebrating tomorrow night.
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Usually the picture becomes clearer as we get closer to Election Day. This year things are getting fuzzier as more races become extremely close.
Indiana – Last time I had this in the Likely category for a Democratic pickup. Now the experts are calling it a tossup and the polls are inconclusive. Both sides are hammering each other with negative ads. I think GOP challenger Todd Young is more effective. He is tying Evan Bayh to Obamacare and portraying him as someone who left the Senate to make millions using his influence. I now think that Young will win. If so, it will be a huge disappointment to the Democrats. Missouri – A number of first term GOP senators are in a difficult fight for reelection. Roy Blunt is one of them. The sixty-six year old Blunt has long been a fixture in Missouri politics. Challenging him is thirty-five year old Jason Kander, Missouri’s Secretary of State. Kinder has a bright future but Missouri is a red state (Romney beat Obama in 2012 by nine points). I believe Blunt will hang on. Nevada – Democrats are depending on former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto to keep Harry Reid’s seat. She is challenged by Congressman Joe Heck. Once again the experts and polls are no help. Trump has hurt Heck’s chances, particularly among Hispanics. That and the fact that the state has become more Democratic should put Masto over the top. New Hampshire – This is another tough call. Freshman GOP Senator Kelly Ayotte is facing Governor Maggie Hassan. Ayotte has gone out of her way to denounce Trump, recently saying she wouldn’t want her daughter in the same room with him. Although voters have a favorable opinion of both women, I think they will choose not to throw Ayotte out of office. North Carolina – Republican Richard Burr is seeking a third term. His challenger is Deborah Ross who previously served in the state legislature. The polls are inconclusive. North Carolina is a state in transition but is still a Republican state. I believe Burr will hang on. Pennsylvania – Another freshman Republican, Pat Toomey, is seeking a second term. His challenger is Katie McGinty. She has served in a number of state and federal government positions but this is her first try for an elective office. Pennsylvania is a blue state and she is consistently leading in the polls. Looks like the Democrats will pick up another seat. Wisconsin – This is a rematch of the 2010 election. Former Senator Russ Feingold is challenging incumbent Ron Johnson. The polling generally favors Feingold but is within the margin of error. I think he will win his seat back. So there you have it. I project that the Republicans will lose seats in Illinois, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. However, they would keep the Senate by a 51-49 margin. In my sixty-five years on the planet I have seen men walk on the moon, the Soviet Union collapse, the internet and countless medical advancements. Now I have seen something probably no living human ever saw until today; the Cubs winning the World Series.
For a while it looked like they would blow it. There was a two run error. They lost a three run lead late in the game. However, they scored two runs in the top of the tenth inning and hung on to win the game. They have shed, hopefully for good, the title of lovable losers. We really need to look back to 2009. The Ricketts family bought the team ending nearly eight decades of corporate ownership (Wrigley and Tribune). Two years later they brought in Theo Epstein, probably the best baseball man in the business. He is a graduate of Yale and became the youngest general manager in history. It takes time to turn around a franchise but it has certainly paid off. Now the fun is over and it’s back to politics. With Election Day only six days away, it’s time for my final prognostication. The experts rate a number of races as tossups but I will make a call (guess) on each one. Right now the Republicans hold a 54-46 advantage. They can only afford to lose three seats to keep control (four if Trump wins).
As before, I have broken down the results into four categories: Easy, Should Win, Likely Win and Tight. The only thing necessary for a win in the first category is a beating pulse. Twenty one races (eight Democrats and thirteen Republicans) are included. The only change from last time is Iowa which I had as a Should Win. Three seats are in the Should Win category. Senators in Colorado and Ohio will keep their seats while the open seat in Louisiana will stay with the GOP. Last time I had Ohio in the Tight category. The Likelys give us the first change in party. John McCain and Marco Rubio should keep their seats while Tammy Duckworth moves Illinois to the Democrats. I had Indiana in this category last time but things have tightened up. The final seven races will decide which party controls the Senate. Democrats hope to hang on in Nevada while Republicans are defending Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. There has been a ridiculous amount of information and misinformation regarding the email scandal. I thought a hopefully unbiased summary might be of some value.
Server – Rather than use the State Department’s email system, she had a server installed in her home. This was done by people without any security clearance. While some of her predecessors may have used private email, none used a private server. This shows a shocking lack of judgment. Obviously it was not as secure as the State Department systems. Presumably this was done so she could have total control over the emails. Emails – Once she had the server, she used it for her emails. This was obviously done to avoid the Freedom of Information Act. Using a commercial email service would accomplish the same purpose but leave a trail. Comingling – She set up one account for both personal and professional emails. This was unbelievably stupid. Classified information – There was little or no regard for using this system for sensitive, even highly classified, information. Deleting – Before turning over the emails over to the State Department after she left office, someone went through and deleted those deemed personal. This was done using a word search, not by looking at each email. It is entirely possible that hundreds, if not thousands, of work related emails were deleted. Lying – She has repeatedly lied to the American public. When caught in one lie, she tells another. Each one of these actions shows a lack of judgment and/or character. The question is whether or not she committed a crime. James Comey has said that the statutes require an intentional mishandling of classified information and there is no crime without intent. I believe him to be a man of honor and take him at his word. I wish those that call her a criminal would point out a specific section of the criminal code that she broke. More important than whether or not she committed a crime is whether she is fit to serve as President. Last year I did a blog titled “Unfit to Serve”. My belief has not changed. What has changed is the nomination of Donald Trump. I also believe he is unfit to serve based on temperament and a lack of appreciation of our democratic process. That leaves voters between a rock and a hard place. |
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